“Cozy Bear, Cold Peace? Cyber Conflict from Estonia’s Bronze Soldier to the U.S. Presidential Election”
The 2016 election hack caught the American public and U.S. Government off-guard, raising important questions about appropriate responses and whether a cyber attack on democratic institutions constitutes an act of war. Existing precedents from Tallinn to Washington suggest a persistent pattern of interference from mainstay rivals, however, and illuminate how traditional state behaviors and international interactions can inform our views on warfare and conflict in the cyber era. Drawing on examples from Cold War nuclear paradigms to modern DDoS attacks, this presentation examines how existing international security approaches do, and don’t, map onto “next gen” cyber methods and responses. It raises important questions for policy makers, including whether deterrence is possible in cyber conflict, and how states can build trust in cyberspace.